The Telegraph , 15 de Julho de 2009

It noted a “very sharp increase” in cash as funds opt for caution, as well as a retreat from growth stocks into the safe havens of pharmaceuticals, health care, and utilities. Hedge funds have cut their net “long positions”, with many switching to the “short” side as the rally falters.

  • Saída do risco para as compras seguras

Despite the skittish mood, investors still seem drawn like “moths to a flame” towards Asia and emerging markets, convinced that the catch-up economies will vastly outperform the Old World over the next twelve months. A net 54pc are overweight emerging markets, the second highest ever, led by Indonesia, China, Russia, and Brazil. They seem to be disregarding warnings that China may soon have to clamp down on rampant credit growth.

  • Três Bric´s atraem dinheiro, embora  a análise seja de curto prazo.

By contrast, the survey had never before seen such revulsion towards Europe. A net 30pc expect to hold underweight portfolios on Europe over the next year — punishing the region for its “over-valued currency”, and half-hearted stimulus by governments.

Mr Baker said the investor gloom over Europe could not be squared with the optimism elsewhere since Europe is leveraged to global trade and likely to recover in sympathy, even if slightly later. The divergence has become “dangerously extreme”, and that creates an excellent opportunity to start buying European stocks on the cheap.

  • Indução à compra através da venda da “janela de oportunidade” do preço baixo.

The Merrill monthly survey covers 221 funds managing $635bn. It is closely watched by experts because it reveals when consensus has swung too far in one direction or another. One way to use the data is to trim positions in hot sectors and rotate into those that are most spurned, which today means cyclical and industrial stocks in the eurozone.

  • E se não for branco, será preto, se não for de risco será de risco.


E ao dia 15 de julho de 2009, os gestores de fundos financeiros, bem pagos e bem preparados,  supõe-se, continuam sem fazer a minima ideia do que se vai passar a seguir.


Written by dissidentex

16/07/2009 às 19:19

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